Second Symposium(Presentation of Tanjung Perak(4):Address of EAST JAVA ２)

Presenter:Krisnayana Yahya
Lecture of Sepuluh November Technology Institute(ITS)
Surabaya

EastJava in The World Trade Network

Drs. Kresnayana Yahya. MSc THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE
Continuing Friction Among Nations : Trade Related & Competition
Serous Financial And Banking Problems Facing Global Problems
More Economics And Political Trouble Spots Around The World; China Entering Wto; Japan Restructuring Process, Midle East :Oil Related Problems; Latin Americans Growth; Awakening Africa; Asia As The Prime Mover
United States : Fundamental Shift In Labor Management Relationship
Infionnation Technology As The Back Bone

THE PACE OF GROWTH
POWER SHIFTS AS ECONOMIES GROW AT DIFFERENT RATES

Fast Growing Nations
5% or more
ASIA, LATIN AMERICA EASTERN EUROPE
Entering modern economy; Rise of middle class Competitors, suppliers and customers

Moderately Growing Nations
3% to 5%
UNITED STATES CANADA
Agriculuture strong Special strengths in techn & services Pacesetters of modern economies

Slow - Growing Nations
3% or less
WESTERN EUROPE JAPAN AFRICA
Undergoing difficult institutional changes Special strengths in finance & manufacturing, Africa facing serous economic health challenges



GLOBALISATION IN MANUFACTURING
GLOBALISATION IN MANUFACTURING
THE SHIPPlNG LABEL OF ONE US electronics firm : " Made in one or more of the following cou ntries :Korea, Ho ng Kong, Ma[aysia, Singapore, Thailan d , Indonesia, The Philippines. The exact country of origin is unknown "

Continuing movement from rural regions to urban areas

By 2000, there will be 21 megacities ( urban centers with 10 million plus people), including 12 in Asia


INDICATORS

There are more than 2,000 ports around the world, from single berth 10cations handling a few hundreds tons a year to multipurpose facilities handling up to 300 million tons a year.

More than 80 percent of trade with origins or destinations in developing countries, in tonnage, is water bone.

Total world port traffic reached 4.9 billions in 1997, having grown at an average yearly rate of more than 3% Since 1990's 4 billions tons total.

World port trafiic is made fro 45% of liquid bulks (mainly oil, petro leum products and chemicals), for 23% of dry bulks (coal, iron ore, grain and phosphate) and for 32% of general cargo.

Containerization of general cargo traffic has progressed steadily over the last 20 years, including a doubling of world port container traffic between 1990 and 1998 to reach 175 million TEUs (Twenty Feet Equivalent Unit) ; moves of empty containers are estimated to make about 20% of the total.

Container traffics is distributed unevenly between the Far East (45%), Europe (23%), North America (16%), Near and Middle East (6%), Central and South America (4%) and Africa (3%).

Maritime freight costs, as a percentages of import values, have decrease from 6.6% on average for the whole world in 1980 to 5.3% in 1995; however for developing world, the corresponding figure were 10.4% in 1980 and still 8.3% in 1995, and up to 11.4% for Africa.

Total logistic costs (packaging, storage, transport, inventories, administration and management) or estimated to reach up to 20% of total production costs in OECD countries, while freight costs alone (transpdrt and insurance) can make up 40% of values of export for several Afiican landlocked countries.

Transport usually accounts for a quarter of total logistic cost on OECD countries, storages for a fifth and inventories for a sixth.

General Trend in the Port Maritime Lo istic Sector
A 1997 world review of the top 100 container port shows that 88 out 100 conform to the Landlord Port model, in which the Port Authority retains ultimate property rights over port land, and fulfils all regulatory functions, while commercial operation are carried out by private operators.

Total world maritime traffic is expected to grow by 4 or 5% annually between 1998 and 2010.

Total port container throughput is forecast to reach 270 millions TEUs by 2005, I.e. a 55% increase over 1998; as a result, even accounting for productivity improvements, the need for additional facilities to come on stream over the next years reaches between 200 and 300 new full-fledged container terminals.

Private sector involvement in operations and investment in infrastructure has been growing significantly since 1990. It is estimated there are at end 1998 around 100 port concessions contracts signed worldwide (most in containers tenninal, with gramj coal and liquid bulk facilities accounting for the rest), for a total estimated private investments amount of US$ 6.3% billions. However, non-specialized general cargo facilities have difficulties attracting private infrastructure financing, and the geographical imbalances are significant: 42% of the projects signed are in LAC, 38% in EAP, 7% in SAS, 5% in MENA, 4% in ECA and AFR.

Traffic concentration on large intermodal platforms and shipping alliances translate into fewer ports handling a more important share of world traffic : the first 10 containers port handled 31% of the world traffic in 1980, and close to 40% today. Simultaneously, the growth of transshipment activities complements the develop ment of hub ports: container transshipment make 20% oftotal maritime container traffic today and is growing.

As a consequence of both liberalization of maritime transport and corporate restructuration in the shipping industry, international freight rates have significantly decreased in real terms over the last 10 years, often by more than 40%.

INDONESIA ENTERING THE GLOBAL MARKET

Indonesian Export : ＜ 1% WORLD TRADE
5 - 10% ASEAN MARKET

Export Destination : To More Than 200 Countires Aand Covering More Than 1500 Commodities.

Ports for Export and Import : JAKARTA, SURABAYA, MEDAN, MAKASSAR


The top Exporters to emerging markets show that world trade is still mainly regional :

UNITED STATES
LATIN AMERICA
SOUTH KOREA
PAKISTAN

JAPAN
EAST ASIA
SOUTH KOREA
INDIA

GERMANY
EASTERN EUROPE
SOUTH AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST